Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 4.435449 5.251982 6.156756 7.230844 8.468191 9.845864 11.492760
2025-06-01 3.076987 4.134762 5.439191 7.152899 9.330178 11.987954 15.459590
2025-06-08 2.248249 3.373034 4.893478 7.068169 10.061902 13.995900 19.505313
2025-06-15 1.842977 3.036762 4.779822 7.453695 11.381098 16.853070 24.945252
2025-06-22 1.474399 2.649745 4.491335 7.500019 12.180189 19.042537 29.678252
2025-06-29 1.194952 2.328141 4.222733 7.499791 12.865429 21.094986 34.382097
2025-07-06 0.978130 2.057047 3.973918 7.468908 13.464891 23.041675 39.078411
2025-07-13 0.901521 2.020466 4.110592 8.088581 15.174662 26.864304 47.011967
2025-07-20 0.791040 1.891765 4.054725 8.351904 16.296904 29.825928 53.808633
2025-07-27 0.705506 1.793893 4.036491 8.672605 17.542010 33.087350 61.353219
2025-08-03 0.603551 1.636041 3.870422 8.681409 18.209633 35.401612 67.465274
2025-08-10 0.494278 1.434121 3.575817 8.386938 18.261977 36.617078 71.745165
2025-08-17 0.393774 1.230136 3.244877 7.979502 18.069956 37.416344 75.446020
2025-08-24 0.330847 1.106836 3.073864 7.889332 18.504738 39.428069 81.544028
2025-08-31 0.278281 0.996966 2.912946 7.795103 18.916179 41.427578 87.780009
2025-09-07 0.258046 0.976668 2.970799 8.214868 20.470125 45.795093 98.862229
2025-09-14 0.224523 0.904957 2.880983 8.265131 21.212761 48.589153 107.076005
2025-09-21 0.194061 0.833625 2.777664 8.264797 21.837479 51.187700 115.086075
2025-09-28 0.167040 0.765229 2.668372 8.231101 22.377613 53.647910 122.987532
2025-10-05 0.164027 0.784542 2.819520 8.906348 24.669691 60.016752 139.336840
2025-10-12 0.150220 0.758004 2.827111 9.193135 26.048282 64.505250 152.055843
2025-10-19 0.139219 0.739304 2.855730 9.542301 27.615790 69.523405 166.211147
2025-10-26 0.121990 0.688172 2.769615 9.551884 28.327746 72.680741 176.589142